Aerospace & Defense

International Enplanements

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) estimates that U.S. mainline carrier international passenger enplanements will fall 2.4% in 2009, but recover with a 2.4% growth in 2010 and clock 4.4% average annual growth thereafter, reaching 142.2 million in 2025. The FAA forecasts international mainline real yield (adjusted for inflation) to decline from 13.37 cents in 2008 to 13.25 cents in 2009. Thereafter, international real yield would decline at a rate of 1% annually, falling to 11.34 cents by 2025.

Domestic Enplanements

Domestic enplanements are forecasted to decline 8.8% in 2009 and rise 1.9% in 2010 before expanding at an average annual rate of 2.4% to reach 690.2 million in 2025, according to the FAA estimates. Domestic mainline passenger real yield is estimated to drop 14% this year, from 13.09 cents in 2008 to 12.91 cents. Subsequently, domestic mainline carrier real yield would likely decline at an average annual rate of 1.2%, dropping to 10.61 cents in 2025.

Regional carrier enplanements are forecasted to decrease 4.5% to 153.5 million in 2009, and grow by 3.6% between 2010 and 2025 to reach 267.6 million in 2025. The regional carrier passenger aircraft fleet is expected to increase from 2,582 aircraft in 2008 to 3,033 aircraft in 2025, an average annual increase of 1.0%. The fleet size is projected to shrink by 9.8% in 2009 (253 aircraft). The number of regional jets is expected to increase from 1,655 in 2008 to 2,249 in 2025, representing an average annual growth of 1.8%. All of the growth in this segment is expected to occur in the in the 70-90-seat category.

As projected by FAA, total air cargo Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) (freight/express and mail) would rise from 38.9 billion in 2008 to 78.6 billion in 2025.

Domestic RTMs are predicted to slump 8.3% in 2009, but expand 2.5% in 2010. The recovery in international markets would be stronger next year, at +5.0%, after a 7.2% reduction this year. International RTMs are predicted to increase by 6.2% between 2010 and 2025. The U.S. cargo fleet would increase from 949 aircraft in 2008 to 1,584 aircraft in 2025, an average increase of 3.1% per annum.